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BofA sees gold hitting $4,000 per ounce in the second quarter of 2026. Here’s why the bank sees more room to run after recent record highs

BofA sees gold hitting $4,000 per ounce in the second quarter of 2026. Here’s why the bank sees more room to run after recent record highs

John Williams 

Gold prices have indeed soared to all-time highs in 2025, prompting headlines about a historic rally. But according to Bank of America (BofA) Global Research, the story is more nuanced: The gold sector, while booming, hasn’t returned to all of the metrics that defined previous cyclical peaks, especially regarding its value relative to the broader equity market and its own historical valuations.Recommended VideoThis year, gold surged past major thresholds, as the traditional hedge against inflation and macroeconomic uncertainty has been propelled by a preponderance of both. On September 2, gold shot past $3,500/oz, climbing further to $3,600/oz on the Monday following the disappointing U.S. jobs data for August, which raised bets on easier monetary policy. The BofA Commodities team is “bullish,” they say, now forecasting the quarterly average price reaching $4,000/oz in the second quarter of 2026, with the spot price already up 4.1% week-over-week to $3,589/oz.Rob Haworth, senior investment strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management, toldFortunein March that gold may be a good investment for some but it’s not exactly liquid. “You’re not sending gold to buy your Domino’s pizza,” he said, adding that gold’s rally in recent years has been driven by central banks buying the precious metal as the U.S. dollar weakens and countries like China seek alternatives.  Here’s why Bank of America says perspective is important in evaluating gold’s record high, and it depends on how you look at it.Sector market cap doubling past peaks, but …The global gold sector’s total market capitalization has ballooned to just over $550 billion, nearly twice the peaks seen in 2011 and 2020 ($331-$334 billion), more than 8x the 2016 cycle low ($70 billion), and more than 3x the recent cycle low of $170 billion in 2022. This rally, according to BofA, reflects not just price gains. but also investor interest heightened by inflation and sector cost pressures.Yet, when viewed as a share of the total global equity market, gold’s ascent looks less dramatic and it’s “far below” its previous highs, the Commodities team says. The sector now stands at 0.39% of world market capitalization, matching the 2020 peak but still far below 2011’s high of 0.71%. If the sector returned to that 2011 percentage, it would imply a market cap of nearly $990 billion—a potential upside only if the cycle continues long enough.Room to runDespite high metal prices, gold equities are not trading at historical top valuations. The sector’s next-12-month (NTM) EV/EBITDA multiple sits at 11x, well below the 2020 peak of 15.4x. Price-to-net-asset-value (P/NAV) for the sector rests at 1.88x, compared to 2.27x in 2020 and 2.19x in 2011. Adjusted for current spot gold prices, sector multiples suggest even further upside, with NTM EV/EBITDA at 11.7x and P/NAV at 1.39x.Gold equities have responded to the price rally, but not uniformly. Major indices such as the S&P/TSX Global Gold Index (+5.5% WoW), Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index (+4.8%), and NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index (+4.1%) all surged alongside bullion’s breakout. Year-to-date, Fresnillo is the best performer, climbing over 268%, spotlighting disparate returns in the sector.BofA’s research points to room for growth—if current trends in monetary policy, inflation, and investor sentiment persist. However, the gold sector remains a small slice of the global equity pie, with equity valuations still well below historical highs. For market observers, the surging price of gold is only part of the story; the fundamentals suggest this boom is not yet a rerun of previous peaks, and “record highs” should be viewed in context.For this story, Fortune used generative AI to help with an initial draft. An editor verified the accuracy of the information before publishing. Join us at the Fortune Workplace Innovation SummitMay 19–20, 2026, in Atlanta. The next era of workplace innovation is here—and the old playbook is being rewritten. At this exclusive, high-energy event, the world’s most innovative leaders will convene to explore how AI, humanity, and strategy converge to redefine, again, the future of work. Register now.

Warren Buffett just sold his entire stake in Tesla-rival BYD as profits fall and tariff questions rise

Warren Buffett just sold his entire stake in Tesla-rival BYD as profits fall and tariff questions rise

Jennifer Brown 

Berkshire Hathaway has fully exited its stakein Chinese EV-maker BYD, ending a 17-year investment that began in 2008. The sale, part of a broader portfolio reduction, comes after BYD’s profits slowed and Mexico’s recent tariff hike on Chinese vehicles.For the majority of the past two decades, Chinese EV-maker BYD has been able to hang its hat on the fact that famed investor Warren Buffett held a stake in its business. That’s no longer the case, according to a recent filing from Berkshire Hathaway.Recommended VideoBerkshire’s stake in the Tesla rival dates back to 2008, when it wrote in its annual report it owned a 10% stake in an “amazing Chinese company” named BYD, which was building the vehicle of “the future … a new plug-in electric car.”But according to a 10-Q form for Berkshire’s energy arm filed for the period ending June 30, 2025, the Buffett-led company has reduced its stake to zero.The filing, seen byFortune, reads that in December 2024, Berkshire held a stake in BYD worth $415m. Beside it, as of June 30, that stake had been reduced to zero.The BYD sale comes as part of a reduction in the energy giant’s investment portfolio as a whole, which has reduced to $950m from $1.3 billion six months prior. That being said, there was one area where Buffett and his team are buying: Treasury bills. Holdings of this asset increased from nothing to $39 million during the window from December to June.BYD’s share price slipped on the news. The company’s Hong Kong dollar-denominated shares (more liquid than their Chinese yuan counterparts) were down 3.35% in trading today, sitting at 109 HKD compared to their 2025 peak of 155 HKD, which it hit back in May per Bloomberg.The backing from one of America’s most famed investors had been a feather in the cap of BYD, even more so because Berkshire has thus far resisted in investing in its main rival, Elon Musk’s Tesla.Despite that investment now being walked back, Li Yunfei, a general manager at BYD, praised Buffett and his company. Writing on Chinese social media site Weibo, Li wrote: “In August 2022, Berkshire began to reduce its holdings of the company shares it bought in 2008, and its shareholding was below 5% in June last year.”“Stock investment, if you buy, you can sell, which is a normal thing! Thanks to Munger and Buffett for their recognition of BYD! Thank you for your investment, help and companionship in the past 17 years! Like all long-termism!”BYD did not respond toFortune’srequest for comment, but directed other media outlets to the statement from Li.Why sell?As Li points out, both buying and selling is a standard practice in stock investment. One reason for Berkshire selling could simply be that the company feels BYD’s share price has hit its ceiling. After all, when Berkshire invested back in 2008 the price of was between 3 and 8 HKD per CNBC records.Therefore Berkshire has already seen a massive return on its initial investment, especially having sold in the early half of 2025 when stock prices were relatively elevated.But the 10-Q did also shed some light on Berkshire’s potential motivation. It reads: “BHE [Berkshire Hathaway Energy] and Other’s earnings decreased $317 million for the second quarter and $65 million for the first six months of 2025 compared to 2024.“The changes included an unfavorable comparative change of $257 million in the second quarter and $62 million for the first six months of 2025 and lower net interest and dividend income of $44 million for the second quarter and $58 million for the first six months of 2025, each related to the Company’s investment in BYD Company Limited, lower federal income tax credits … and unfavorable consolidated income tax adjustments, partially offset by lower interest expense and higher federal income tax credits recognized on a consolidated basis for the first six months of 2025.”Profits at BYD are also shrinking. In its half-year results for 2025, the company reported net profits attributable to shareholders of its parent company of 15.5 billion yuan, having previously reported Q1 net profits attributable to shareholders of 9.15 billion. The discrepancy between the two is some 6.35 billion yuan for the second quarter—approximately 30% down from a year prior, per data from LSEG.In its half-year report, BYD wrote it was operating in an “intense market game [of] increased price competition, and frequent occurrence of excessive marketing, which had exerted an adverse periodic impact on the development of the industry.”This high-stakes game is a dynamic Buffett is well aware of. At Berkshire Hathaway’s 2023 annual conference, Buffett said: “Charlie [Munger] and I for long have felt that the auto industry is just too tough … It’s just a business where you’ve got a lot of worldwide competitors, they’re not going to go away. And it looks like there are winners at any given time, but it doesn’t get you a permanent place.”On top of the shifting profit picture, BYD is also navigating its new tariff-era environment. Bizarrely, Trump’s trade policy agenda has actually given BYD an edge because it doesn’t sell passenger vehicles in the U.S., unlike some of its other E.V. competitors reliant on the American market.But it does sell a range of vehicles in Mexico, which had been a region earmarked for significant growth. However, earlier this month the country announced a plan to increase tariffs on Chinese cars by 50%, a move which some analysts saw as “placating” Mexico’s neighbors to the north—and potentially closing a loophole in President Trump’s rumbling trade war with China.Beijing addressed the issue head on, saying earlier this month: “China advocates a universally-beneficial and inclusive economic globalization, opposes all forms of unilateralism, protectionism and discriminatory and exclusive measures, and firmly rejects moves that are taken under coercion to constrain China or undermine China’s legitimate rights and interests under any pretext.”Foreign ministry spokesperson Lin Jian added in the briefing: “China attaches great importance to its relations with Mexico and hopes that Mexico will work with China to jointly advance world economic recovery and the development of global trade.”Join us at the Fortune Workplace Innovation SummitMay 19–20, 2026, in Atlanta. The next era of workplace innovation is here—and the old playbook is being rewritten. At this exclusive, high-energy event, the world’s most innovative leaders will convene to explore how AI, humanity, and strategy converge to redefine, again, the future of work. Register now.

Flow Hive is the beekeeping startup that simplified honey harvesting and scaled globally

Flow Hive is the beekeeping startup that simplified honey harvesting and scaled globally

David Johnson 

Third-generation beekeeper Cedar Anderson was frustrated by the labour-intensive process of extracting honey from his hives. So, in 2015, he and his father set about developing a device that could make apiculture easier and accessible to more people. Ten years on, the Andersons are reinventing the industry with Flow Hive, a mechanism that allows honey to be withdrawn with ease.Honey flowing into waiting jarsApiary in Byron BayAt the heart of the product is a series of rectangular plastic frames, which bees fill with wax and store honey inside, just as they would a honeycomb. To collect its contents, the beekeeper inserts a “flow key” into the top of the hive and turns it, causing the honeycomb cells inside to break. Golden honey then flows through sealed channels inside the frame and out through tubes into collection jars. Unlike conventional apiaries, which require complex equipment to extract honey from hives, the Andersons’ solution requires minimal fuss.Co-founders Cedar and Stuart AndersonWhile the contraption was originally aimed at the commercial honey-making industry (it is capable of holding as much as 20kg), the Andersons soon realised that the streamlined process that Flow Hive offers would appeal to urban beekeepers too.The entrance keeps wasps and other invaders outBusy at workFrom humble beginnings in a tin shed, Flow Hive has built a global business with thoughtful design and environmental awareness. More than 100,000 Flow Hives have been installed in 130 countries, turning rooftops, balconies and suburban gardens into havens for pollinators. What began as a father-son side project now employs more than 50 staff, with its headquarters still nestled among the gum trees of their farm. Its manufacturing process has scaled efficiently, combining traditional joinery with streamlined digital production of honeycomb frames, allowing the business to meet surging demand.Honey from the hives in Byron BayFlow Hive frame, filled with beesThe firm has also expanded its range to include pollinator-friendly gardening products, embedding itself within the climate-conscious home-and-garden movement. In redefining how we harvest honey, it has also reframed what it means to be a modern manufacturer: local, thoughtful and purpose-driven. Business is busier than ever. Want more stories like these in your inbox?Sign up to Monocle’s email newsletters to stay on top of news and opinion, plus the latest from the magazine, radio, film and shop.Your EmailSubscribe

‘Free the laptops!’ Why Germany’s digital overhaul can’t come soon enough

‘Free the laptops!’ Why Germany’s digital overhaul can’t come soon enough

Sarah Johnson 

Germany’s legacy administrative systems almost ruined my wedding. I have many fond memories of the build-up to the big day but also one terrible recollection: having to gather a pile of paper documents from offices across Germany to submit to the registry in Munich. Fortunately, this laborious task didn’t scupper our plans – but it was illustrative of how outdated systems are stymying the entire country.We might be the world’s third-largest economy with enviable engineering prowess but our bureaucracy and systems are notoriously analogue. So many of the processes that citizens rely on involve pieces of paper locked away in filing cabinets or make use of software that’s regarded as obsolete in many other countries. This was underlined by the coronavirus pandemic, during which the German government was derided for trying to do contact tracing using fax machines. Screen burn: Germany is finally working to bring its outdated bureaucratic systems into the digital ageMore recently it emerged that Deutsche Bahn, the national railway, still uses a decades-old computer operating system. The World Digital Competitiveness Ranking, published by the International Institute for Management Development in Switzerland, puts Germany at a tragic 23rd place out of 67 economies. A 2024 study by the Ifo Institute, an economic think tank, showed that if Germany caught up with Denmark in digitalising its administration, its GDP would grow by €96bn.Our underdevelopment on this front is symptomatic of a dispersed political structure. After the fall of the Nazis, the country went to great lengths to avoid centralising power, giving a lot of autonomy to states and cities. This often meant that they developed separate software packages to run local services, as well as their own ways of doing things. Such fragmentation still hinders co-operation. A long-held commitment to data protection has further hampered the adoption of digital services. Amid an expected third consecutive year of recession, Germany is currently in the process of rewriting the rules of how it is run. It has been working to loosen its previously airtight fiscal rules to allow for greater borrowing to splurge on defence and infrastructure. And now, somewhat late to the game, it is finally looking to go digital. The still fairly-new chancellor, Friedrich Merz, has set up a long-awaited digital ministry. Somewhat surprisingly, he appointed a political outsider as its head: Karsten Wildberger, a 55-year-old with a doctorate in physics and executive experience at firms relying on different technology networks: telecommunications company Vodafone, energy company E.On and, most recently, electronics retailer Mediamarktsaturn, where he was CEO.Wildberger was publicly received with a mix of optimism and eyerolls – one pundit described him as “the man who has been trying to sell you fax machines and now wants to take them all away from you again”. Despite the sarcasm, he has been handed real power. His newly mintedBundesministeriumhas obtained a veto over the digital projects of others, a high ranking in the government’s list of federal ministries(which serves as a kind of league table for their political sway) and responsibility for issues previously scattered across six departments, including parts of the much-coveted cybersecurity beat. Merz clearly means business about getting Germany up to speed.To do that, Wildberger has three priorities. First, he’ll seek to expand mobile and fibre-optic networks to boost phone coverage and internet access. Second, he will work to offer public services through a new digital wallet by centralising standards and establishing best practices from two pioneering federal states. Finally, he will seek to reduce annual costs for businesses by billions of euros by cutting red tape by 25 per cent. All three of these goals are now more achievable thanks to Germany’s new fiscal flexibility and its specially assigned assets of €500bn over 12 years to invest in infrastructure including digitalisation. On the back of that boost, Merz should continue to vigorously back the dynamism that Wildberger’s new ministry represents. Under Germany’s last chancellor, there was great public debate over the question of whether to send Leopard tanks to Ukraine, with some people  taking up the battle cry “Free the Leopards!” Under its new plans, and its push for the future, Germany should unite behind a new rallying cry: “Free the laptops!”Schmidt is Monocle’s Munich correspondent. Germany is at a crossroads – read our reporting on the historic election that brought Friedrich Merz to power.

The ‘godfather of financial independence’ says young people should do two things to build wealth—and it’s nothing ‘silly’ like buying a house

The ‘godfather of financial independence’ says young people should do two things to build wealth—and it’s nothing ‘silly’ like buying a house

Jennifer Jones 

Renowned financial educator JL Collins has some advice for millennials and younger generations struggling to build wealth. Collins, widely known as the “Godfather of Financial Independence,” emphasized two fundamental strategies in a recent conversation with the comedian Hasan Minhaj: Invest in Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Admiral Shares, and rent instead of buying a home.Minhaj, who rose to fame as a correspondent on “The Daily Show” and later hosted Netflix’s Emmy-winning “Patriot Act,” interviewed Collins in June about his bestselling book, “The Simple Path to Wealth.” The book, which has sold over one million copies across 20 languages, emerged from Collins’ failed attempts to teach his daughter about money when she was young. Collins spent decades in B2B magazine publishing, but has been investing in the stock market all the while—for over 50 years. He also worked as an investment officer at an international investment research firm, marketing analysis to institutional investors.Collins is big in the personal finance community, with his blog launching in 2011 after he began writing letters to his daughter about investing concepts she initially showed little interest in hearing. His straightforward approach and real-world experience have earned him recognition as a foundational figure in the FIRE (Financial Independence, Retire Early) movement.Collins’ two simple strategies for building wealthDuring his interview with Minhaj, Collins emphasized his core advice for younger generations: “VTSAX and rent”—a philosophy he says he’s shared with his own daughter, who is now in her early 30s.VTSAX, or the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Admiral Shares, provides broad exposure to the entire U.S. stock market with an extremely low expense ratio of just 0.04%. The fund holds over $1.9 trillion in assets and tracks approximately 100% of the investable U.S. stock market. With a five-star Morningstar rating, VTSAX has delivered strong returns for long-term investors. Collins argues this single fund provides sufficient diversification for most investors while avoiding the complexity and higher fees associated with actively managed funds.His second recommendation—renting instead of buying—challenges conventional wisdom about homeownership. Collins told Minhaj that his daughter successfully avoided becoming “house poor” by choosing to rent, which provided her with the flexibility to make bold career decisions. She recently quit her corporate job, having accumulated what Collins calls “f–k you money”—enough financial cushion to make career changes without being dependent on a paycheck.Collins emphasizes that while homeownership can provide lifestyle benefits such as stability or space for children, it shouldn’t be viewed as a wealth-building strategy. “If your key goal is building wealth, then owning a house is not gonna contribute to that,” he said in the interview. Instead, he frames real-estate purchases as lifestyle decisions rather than financial investments.This perspective aligns with his broader philosophy that emerged from watching his father lose his ability to earn income during Collins’ childhood—an experience that motivated him to ensure investments could eventually replace employment income. Collins began saving 50% of his income from his first professional job paying $10,000 annually in 1974, a practice he maintained throughout his career.For millennials facing economic challenges including student debt, housing costs, and uncertain employment prospects, Collins’ advice offers a straightforward path forward: invest consistently in low-cost index funds while avoiding the financial burden of homeownership until wealth accumulation goals are met. As he demonstrated through both his own experience and his daughter’s success, this approach can provide the financial freedom to make career and life choices based on personal fulfillment rather than economic necessity.You can watch the full conversation between Hasan Minhaj and JL Collins below:For this story, Fortune used generative AI to help with an initial draft. An editor verified the accuracy of the information before publishing.Join us at the Fortune Workplace Innovation SummitMay 19–20, 2026, in Atlanta. The next era of workplace innovation is here—and the old playbook is being rewritten. At this exclusive, high-energy event, the world’s most innovative leaders will convene to explore how AI, humanity, and strategy converge to redefine, again, the future of work. Register now.

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Swiss chocolate stocks diverge as high cocoa prices take toll

Swiss chocolate stocks diverge as high cocoa prices take toll

Jane Brown 

Shares in two of Switzerland’s biggest chocolatiers are on markedly different courses this year as soaring cocoa prices prove a tougher obstacle for one than they do for the other.Recommended VideoLindt & Spruengli AG has risen 29% to date as the Lindor maker has shown itself able to pass on higher costs to customers, helped by the launch of crowd-drawing products such as Dubai-style chocolate. By contrast, Barry Callebaut AG has fallen 29% as the world’s leading manufacturer of bulk chocolate is weighed down by a lack of pricing power.The cost of cocoa is a challenge for both companies, with the price of the key commodity remaining stubbornly high after more than quadrupling in 2023 and 2024. Yet while Lindt plans double-digit price increases this year, Barry Callebaut’s customers — which include Nestle SA and Hershey Co. — have been pausing orders as they wait for prices to come down.“Barry Callebaut faces a perfect storm of subdued demand and limited pricing power,” said Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Ignacio Canals Polo. By contrast, “Lindt stands out amid the current cocoa market turmoil, leveraging its premium positioning.”Lindt, which operates in the high-end segment of the market, has been able to gain market share from competitors such as Mondelez International Inc. The introduction of its Dubai-style chocolate at the end of last year has been touted as a “blockbuster” by UBS Group AG analyst Joern Iffert, who noted that it’s one of Lindt’s “best product launches in history.”Price increases will continue this year due to higher cocoa prices, said a spokesperson from Lindt. Still, the firm expects the trend from quantity to quality consumption of premium chocolates to continue. Meanwhile, customers of Barry Callebaut have been reducing the chocolate content in their products, hurting margins. In April, the company cut its sales outlook for the year, sending the stock lower.For Barry Callebaut, another pressure point is the interest of short sellers as cocoa supplies continue to tighten and West African growers hold back next season’s sales in anticipation of higher prices. Shares out on loan, an indication of short interest, were at 23% of the firm’s free float as of June 3, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence.“With every cocoa price increase you have a negative impact on free cash flow,” said Damian Burkhardt, Swiss equities lead portfolio manager at EFG Asset Management. “That is the reason why short interest on the name is so high.”The firm’s executives have struggled to navigate a difficult environment. Barry Callebaut shares have had a total negative annualized return of 30% under Chief Executive Officer Peter Feld, who took the helm in April 2023 following the sudden departure of Peter Boone. That compares with a positive return of about 14% for peers during the same period, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Barry Callebaut didn’t respond to a request for comment.To be sure, average analyst price targets suggest the fortunes of the two Swiss chocolate makers, which are based about 10 kilometers apart from each other in the canton of Zurich, could reverse in the next 12 months.Their predictions show Barry Callebaut, which fell to a 2011 low last month, rallying 31% from current levels. Meanwhile Lindt, which is hovering near a record high, could drop 12%. BNP Paribas Exane analyst Mikheil Omanadze says Lindt shares are “expensive.”But for Morgan Stanley’s David Roux, Lindt has “stood out during the ultimate test for chocolate brands.” Even with this year’s share rally, he sees the chocolate maker’s premium to European consumer staples peers being supported.Join us at the Fortune Workplace Innovation SummitMay 19–20, 2026, in Atlanta. The next era of workplace innovation is here—and the old playbook is being rewritten. At this exclusive, high-energy event, the world’s most innovative leaders will convene to explore how AI, humanity, and strategy converge to redefine, again, the future of work. Register now.

HSF Kramer boosts newly qualified lawyer pay to £145,000

HSF Kramer boosts newly qualified lawyer pay to £145,000

John Johnson 

ShareResizeA series of UK law firms have boosted pay for junior lawyers this year Vuk Valcic/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty ImagesHSF Kramer has boosted pay for its newly qualified lawyers in London to £145,000, up from £135,000 last year.The 7% pay hike takes effect on 1 July, the law firm said in a statement.

Gold drives toward $4,000 as U.S. government shutdown drags on

Gold drives toward $4,000 as U.S. government shutdown drags on

Emily Davis 

Gold reached a fresh record, rallying as much as 2.2% to top $3,970 an ounce.Recommended VideoThe upswing, which follows a run of seven weekly gains, comes as the US government shutdown has delayed key data, further obscuring a murky economic outlook. With a lack of official figures, traders are depending on private reports for signals, while the US central bank is struggling to assess changing conditions. Traders are still pricing in a quarter-point rate cut this month, which would benefit gold further as it doesn’t pay interest.Prices have risen more than 50% this year, with gold-backed exchange-traded funds swelling again last week.Options traders continued to chase a further rally, adding even more bullish positions in SPDR Gold Shares ETF. A trader sold $355 calls that were bought in late September when gold was more than 5% lower, and bought $370 calls equivalent to more than 26 million shares, betting on another 1.8% gain by the end of next week.Bullion has pushed higher this year, spurred by central-bank purchases as they diversify away from the US dollar. Investors have flocked to assets like gold, silver and Bitcoin, in what’s been dubbed the “debasement trade,” fueled by concerns about fiat currencies.The “backdrop is intact with the Fed on path to cut rates further, alongside the weakening labor market,” said Ahmad Assiri, an analyst at Pepperstone Group Ltd. However, “it feels like the risk-reward dynamics are shifting and a tactical pullback would be viewed as a healthy phase within an extended rally.”Gold rose 1.9% to $3,961.19 as of 4:55 p.m. in New York. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index advanced 0.3%. Silver, platinum and palladium all climbed.Join us at the Fortune Workplace Innovation SummitMay 19–20, 2026, in Atlanta. The next era of workplace innovation is here—and the old playbook is being rewritten. At this exclusive, high-energy event, the world’s most innovative leaders will convene to explore how AI, humanity, and strategy converge to redefine, again, the future of work. Register now.

Back in the ’90s a Fed chief warned about ‘irrational exuberance’ in the markets. Stocks rose 105% over the next 4 years

Back in the ’90s a Fed chief warned about ‘irrational exuberance’ in the markets. Stocks rose 105% over the next 4 years

Jennifer Jones 

Gen Zers are no doubt baffled by such recent headlines as “Fed Chair Powell just had his ‘irrational exuberance’ moment, Ed Yardeni says,” and “Did Jerome Powell Just Say ‘Irrational Exuberance’?” Those headlines refer to a long-ago event involving a previous Fed chair, dizzyingly high stock prices, and an eventual market crash. But beware: Some market soothsayers misinterpret that earlier episode, and getting it wrong could misguide today’s investors.Recommended VideoThe headlines were sparked by a Powell appearance where he was asked, after his speech, if today’s record-high stock prices affect Fed policy. He answered, “We do monitor that, but we’re not targeting any level of prices for particular financial assets. We don’t have a view that we know what the right price of any particular financial asset is.” It was classic circumspect Fed talk. Then he added, “We do look at overall financial conditions,” and he went further to note, “For example, equity prices are fairly highly valued.”  Within minutes, the words “highly valued” were pinging through the financial world. The words’ importance was a bit fuzzy. Maybe the Fed would somehow engineer the markets downward, or, with its vast data, it might foresee a market decline.Old-timers immediately saw the incident’s parallel with a speech Fed Chair Alan Greenspan gave in the 1990s. He mentioned the phrase “irrational exuberance”—in an abstract, what-if way—as a force that might push stock prices too high. No one heard it that way, however. His real message seemed clear: The most influential person in the world’s largest economy thought stock prices were too high.Today that speech is widely seen as the setup for the historic market collapse of 2000 in which many hot new internet companies succumbed. Those recent headline writers are asking: Could Powell’s remark play the same role in a roaring market fueled by AI?But that’s not the right question. Greenspan gave his speech in December 1996—almost four years before the market plunge. As he toldFortuneyears later, “If you had left the market when I gave my irrational exuberance speech, you would have missed another 80% of increase” in stock values. (Actually, it was closer to 100%.) As for Powell’s talk last Tuesday—despite the to-do, the S&P 500 has barely moved.The lesson isn’t that investors tremble when Fed chairs talk about stocks. It’s that investor behavior is a compendium of many forces, and the Fed chief’s views don’t propel markets one way or another. That doesn’t mean Powell is wrong. His simple statement that stocks are highly valued is indisputable. Most measures are screaming that the S&P is insanely overpriced. The Shiller Cyclically Adjusted Price/Earnings ratio is the highest it has been since the dotcom peak. The price-to-sales ratio hit a new all-time high this week. The Buffett Indicator—ratio of the market’s capitalization to GDP—says stocks are highly overvalued, and Warren Buffett is holding an enormous cash cache because he can’t find bargains.The truth is, nobody knows if the next crash is coming or when. Not even Fed chairs.Join us at the Fortune Workplace Innovation SummitMay 19–20, 2026, in Atlanta. The next era of workplace innovation is here—and the old playbook is being rewritten. At this exclusive, high-energy event, the world’s most innovative leaders will convene to explore how AI, humanity, and strategy converge to redefine, again, the future of work. Register now.

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How a pair of socks helped Japan’s FamilyMart convenience store become a fashion powerhouse

How a pair of socks helped Japan’s FamilyMart convenience store become a fashion powerhouse

Michael Johnson 

The first ever Birkin bag—born in 1984 at the request of actress Jane Birkin for a bag designed for motherhood—heads to auction

The first ever Birkin bag—born in 1984 at the request of actress Jane Birkin for a bag designed for motherhood—heads to auction

Michael Miller 

Gold’s record price is driven by the ‘debasement trade,’ China, and fear of an AI bubble, analysts say

Gold’s record price is driven by the ‘debasement trade,’ China, and fear of an AI bubble, analysts say

Robert Miller 

Warren Buffett retires from Berkshire Hathaway in 100 days—and Apple could be on the chopping block

Warren Buffett retires from Berkshire Hathaway in 100 days—and Apple could be on the chopping block

Jennifer Smith 

Too scared to shop? Why retail is a prime target for criminals

Too scared to shop? Why retail is a prime target for criminals

Robert Davis 

Digital decency: 10 rules for better online behaviour

Digital decency: 10 rules for better online behaviour

John Smith 

Bristell Aircraft’s smooth ride from passion project to global player

Bristell Aircraft’s smooth ride from passion project to global player

Jennifer Johnson 

Ex-PwC consultant launches law firm advisory business as private equity targets sector

Ex-PwC consultant launches law firm advisory business as private equity targets sector

Robert Davis 

Dozens of SFO cases face potential legal challenge after software failures

Dozens of SFO cases face potential legal challenge after software failures

David Davis 

H&M billionaire quietly moves brand toward private ownership

H&M billionaire quietly moves brand toward private ownership

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Trading Places: Citi poaches Sankey, A&O Shearman re-hires Knighton

Trading Places: Citi poaches Sankey, A&O Shearman re-hires Knighton

Jennifer Johnson 

Spending on AI is increasingly fueled by debt, Goldman Sachs says

Spending on AI is increasingly fueled by debt, Goldman Sachs says

Jane Smith 

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A&O Shearman promotes 33 partners, down from 40 last year

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Robert Miller 

Target’s foot traffic fell for the fourth month in a row—and it’s ‘going to continue to snowball,’ reputation analytics firm says

Target’s foot traffic fell for the fourth month in a row—and it’s ‘going to continue to snowball,’ reputation analytics firm says

Sarah Miller 

Walmart’s elite army of 6,200 cake decorators are some of America’s highest-paid hourly workers

Walmart’s elite army of 6,200 cake decorators are some of America’s highest-paid hourly workers

Michael Jones 

‘This team is guided by science’: Kenvue chief hits back at Trump and RFK Jr.’s Tylenol autism claims in memo to 20,000 employees

‘This team is guided by science’: Kenvue chief hits back at Trump and RFK Jr.’s Tylenol autism claims in memo to 20,000 employees

John Davis 

Case Study 2.0: The grassroots initiative to rebuild a more resilient Palisades

Case Study 2.0: The grassroots initiative to rebuild a more resilient Palisades

Jennifer Miller 

Meet the Dubai Airports CEO who isn’t waiting on the world to change

Meet the Dubai Airports CEO who isn’t waiting on the world to change

Sarah Davis 

In the UAE, flying taxis will soon be a reality

In the UAE, flying taxis will soon be a reality

Michael Johnson 

Top UK law firms boost partner pay as revenues climb

Top UK law firms boost partner pay as revenues climb

Sarah Brown 

Why the New York Stock Exchange just crowned a Gen Z billionaire: Shayne Coplan figured out a society that gambles on everything

Why the New York Stock Exchange just crowned a Gen Z billionaire: Shayne Coplan figured out a society that gambles on everything

Jennifer Miller 

Snack stars are aligning as the FTC clears the $36 billion Mars-Kellanova merger for launch

Snack stars are aligning as the FTC clears the $36 billion Mars-Kellanova merger for launch

Sarah Brown 

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