FedEx and Dun & Bradstreet have launched a monthly U.S. retail barometer that draws on near-real-time logistics signals, giving buyers and lenders an earlier read on spending trends than standard government reports.
FedEx-D&B Retail Momentum Index Debuts
The Retail Momentum Index blends Memphis-based FedEx Dataworks’ domestic parcel flows with Jacksonville-based Dun & Bradstreet’s ocean-container bookings, customs-delay logs, and firmographic file covering 400 million companies. Engineers merged the two data sets in December 2025 and published the first public table on 3 February, a timetable executives describe as unusually quick for an enterprise-grade indicator. The index is calibrated against the Census Bureau’s Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey yet is designed to flag turning points two to six weeks sooner.
Q4 2025 Data Signal Slower Retail Slide
Opening numbers show year-over-year retail momentum down 10.3 % in the fourth quarter, roughly half the 21 % drop seen a year earlier. Return-shipment volumes—a proxy for order-error rates and buyer remorse—fell 54.5 % between 2024 and 2025, suggesting steadier consumer confidence and leaner inventory planning. Policy turbulence shaped the arc: momentum dipped after April tariff hikes, rebounded when levies eased in late summer, then cooled again in December once holiday lift faded. Analysts read the pattern as proof that trade rules, not standard demand cycles, now drive the biggest swings.
2025 Shutdown Accelerated Partnership
Executives trace the collaboration to the 43-day federal funding gap last spring that delayed Census, BEA, and CFPB releases. “Customers suddenly had a six-week blind spot,” said Tony Kreager, FedEx Dataworks chief commercial officer. Dun & Bradstreet risk GM Alex Zuck noted that lenders began asking for alternative signals to price credit lines and inventory loans. Cross-correlation tests run during the shutdown showed FedEx ground and air volumes explained 78 % of the eventual variance in the Census retail series, convincing both boards to turn the feed into a product.
Index Updates Every 72 Hours
Standard monthly retail sales arrive 30-45 days after month-end; the new index refreshes every 72 hours as fresh shipping manifests and container bookings are parsed. A machine-learning layer strips out seasonality, weather, and holiday noise, then scores momentum on a 0-200 scale where 100 equals flat activity. Early adopters—mostly consumer-goods manufacturers and regional banks—receive csv files and Power BI templates that map strengths by four-digit NAICS code and by state.
Public Releases to Run Through Spring 2026
Kreager and Zuck say the April edition will add sector-level sub-indices for electronics, apparel, and groceries. A companion API feeding directly into enterprise-resource-planning systems is slated for beta this summer, priced per call. Longer term, the pair is exploring similar dashboards for European and intra-Asia trade lanes, tapping FedEx’s TNT network and D&B’s newly acquired maritime-data unit.
Useful Resources
- U.S. Census Bureau Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey – benchmark dataset used to calibrate the new index
- FedEx Dataworks Developer Portal – documentation for upcoming logistics-data APIs
- Dun & Bradstreet Global Trade Insights – container-level delay and booking analytics underpinning the maritime slice of the index
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