U.S. truck freight ended 2025 with its first quarter-over-quarter shipment gain since mid-2022, yet freight volumes remain 15% below pre-recession levels, according to the U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index released this week.
Q4 Truck Shipments Rise 1.5% Despite Prolonged Slump
The seasonally adjusted data show 1.5% more loads moved nationally in October-December than in Q3, the first sequential uptick in ten quarters. While modest, the improvement broke a pattern of uninterrupted contraction that began when interest-rate hikes and inventory gluts slammed freight demand in mid-2022. Analysts caution that one quarter does not mark a recovery: volumes still trail year-ago levels by 4.9%, extending a 15-quarter stretch of annual declines that began in late 2021.
Shipper Spending Surges 4.6% on Fewer Available Trucks
Carriers that survived the three-year shakeout are now dictating pricing. Shippers paid 4.6% more per quarter to move the slightly larger freight pile, pushing total spending to its highest watermark since Q1 2024. The gap between cost and volume widened further on an annual basis—spending rose 5.2% versus Q4 2024 even though load counts dropped 4.9%. Diesel prices, down 5.2¢ a gallon last quarter, played no role in the inflation, underscoring that the driver is capacity, not fuel.
Fleet Exits Shrink Capacity Across All U.S. Regions
Bobby Holland, U.S. Bank’s director of freight business analytics, attributes the pricing power to “fleet exits and carriers reducing their rosters.” Long-haul fleets have parked or sold an estimated 63,000 tractors since early 2023, while large truckload companies trimmed driver counts by double-digit percentages. Regional data echo the squeeze: every U.S. region posted sequential spending gains, and four of five recorded year-over-year increases. The Southwest led with an 8.3% annual jump in outbound dollars, followed by the Southeast at 6.1%.
Manufacturing and Construction Weakness Cap Freight Rebound
Macro headwinds still restrain cargo generation. American Trucking Associations chief economist Bob Costello notes that manufacturing output, construction starts, and core consumer spending “all showed strain” late last year. The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index stayed below the 50% growth mark for the 21st consecutive month in December, while housing starts slid 3.1% in the same period. Without a clearer upturn in goods production, analysts say any volume bounce will remain muted.
2025 Decline Slows to 9.9% After 2024’s 20.4% Plunge
Viewed annually, 2025 moved the market only halfway back to stability. Total shipments fell 9.9% compared with 2024—painful but far less than the prior year’s 20.4% collapse. The deceleration fuels cautious optimism that the freight recession is bottoming out, yet full recovery could lag broader GDP by six to nine months because carriers remain disciplined about re-fleeting. Until shipment growth turns positive on a year-over-year basis, Holland warns, “the industry is still operating in a deficit environment.”
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Action Steps for Shippers and Carriers Navigating Tight Capacity
- Audit lane mix now—consolidate lighter loads to improve truck-to-order density before spring produce season adds volume.
- Lock in contract rates through Q3; spot pricing typically jumps 8-10% between March and July when capacity is already lean.
- Re-examine carrier onboarding requirements—streamlined insurance and compliance checks can attract smaller fleets that re-enter the market at higher rate levels.
- Use drop-and-hook or pre-load programs to reduce driver wait time; excess dwell was the top reason carriers rejected 12% of tenders in Q4.
- Track weekly ratio of loads posted to trucks posted on DAT or Truckstop; a reading above 4:1 signals imminent rate spikes.
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