Global air-cargo spot rates have now fallen for six straight months, hit by swelling belly capacity and stalling merchandise trade, Xeneta’s latest market round-up shows.
Spot Rates Drop 3% to $2.58/kg in October
The average worldwide spot price slipped to $2.58 per kilogram in October, 3% below the same week last year, while longer-term contract prices slid 8% to $2.31/kg. Although tonnage moved rose 4% year-on-year, available cargo space widened even faster, climbing 5% as passenger airlines restored wide-body schedules across the Pacific and Atlantic. The imbalance left load factors flat and kept pricing power firmly in shippers’ hands.
Southeast Asia-US Rates Fall 21% to $4.84/kg
Trade-lane snapshots reveal the steepest discounts on the Southeast Asia–North America corridor, where October spot levels averaged $4.84/kg—down 21% from 2023. Northeast Asia–North America eased 10% to $4.37/kg, and Europe–North America added 4% to $2.09/kg, a marked slowdown from the 23% surge recorded in the first quarter. Freight forwarders say carriers are reopening allocations that had been rolled over during the summer, forcing last-minute rate cuts to fill decks.
E-Commerce Decline Follows US De Minimis Rule Shift
Cargo volumes exceeded Xeneta’s September forecast, but the composition of demand has shifted. After Washington closed the $800 duty-free de minimis threshold for Chinese packages on 29 August, China-US e-commerce traffic shrank 34% year-on-year in September—its fifth consecutive monthly contraction. The Europe-North America lane lost 6% of its tonnage in October, reinforcing worries that parcel traffic is migrating to all-cargo ships or regional fulfillment centers to avoid new tariffs.
Forwarders Brace for Margin Pressure in 2025
With overall growth expected to stay below 3% next year, intermediaries are preparing for a second wave of compression. “Everyone is chasing the same loads,” one Hong Kong-based general-sales agent noted, adding that some carriers have already offered fourth-quarter block-space agreements priced below summer levels. Logistics executives told Xeneta they plan to renegotiate handling contracts and park leased freighters to keep unit costs aligned with softer yields.
Shippers Gain Leverage on Annual Contracts
The prolonged dip gives importers unusual leverage in 2025 tenders. Benchmark data shows that spot and contract prices have converged within 10¢ on several lanes, allowing shippers to lock in two-year deals without the traditional premium. Still, analysts warn that aggressive cost cuts could backfire if consumer demand revives ahead of the Lunar New Year. Carriers retain the option to idle capacity quickly—three 777 freighters were grounded last month—so sharply lower rates may prove temporary if Asian factories accelerate output.
Useful Resources
- Xeneta Air Freight Analytics – on-demand rate and capacity indices updated weekly
- IATA Air Cargo Market Analysis – monthly traffic growth by region with load-factor tables
- Baltic Exchange Air Freight Indices – benchmark spot prices for major corridors
- US International Trade Commission – de minimis rule changes and duty calculators
- Seabury Cargo database – granular origin-destination flow forecasts by commodity
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